The Zeeland Guest of the Future: A Baseline Scenario for 2040

Tourism in Zeeland faces major changes, driven by shifting visitor needs, societal trends, climate change, digitalisation and an ageing population. These changes are happening faster and faster.

To make timely strategic choices, entrepreneurs and other stakeholders need a clear picture of what the future guest will look like if current trends continue.

ETFI researched societal trends, historical developments and the Zeeland leisure sector’s stakeholders, and asked local entrepreneurs to contribute trends. In a scenario planning workshop, participants mapped cause-and-effect relationships and identified driving forces, which were ranked by influence and uncertainty. The resulting key certainties were combined with the sector’s current stage of development to create a portrait of the Zeeland guest of the future.

In 2040, Zeeland will still mainly attract visitors from the Netherlands, Germany and Belgium, with a growing share from Southern Europe due to climate change. Guests will increasingly be younger generations who value technology, sustainability and authentic experiences, and look for flexibility and comfort. More solo travellers will seek opportunities to meet others, and the coast will need more shade and cooling.

The scenario shows that the sector will need flexibility and innovation, including visitor management to balance nature experiences with nature protection.