The First Handbook on Scenario Planning in Tourism
Scenario Planning and Tourism Futures: Theory Building, Methodologies and Case Studies is the first handbook on scenario planning in tourism. Written by Albert Postma, Stefan Hartman and Ian Yeoman, it brings together more than a decade of ETFI’s experience in helping the sector prepare for an uncertain future.
Project duration: 2021 – 2024
The challenge
Tourism is shaped by developments that are hard to predict, from climate change and technology to pandemics and shifting values. Traditional forecasting falls short in such a world. Scenario planning offers an alternative: exploring several plausible futures instead of betting on one.
Although the method was increasingly used in tourism, there was no handbook that explained it for this field. After years of building expertise, ETFI was in a unique position to fill that gap.
Our approach
The authors combined the work of two research chairs at NHL Stenden: Scenario Planning, and Disruption, Innovation and New Phenomena. The book outlines the theoretical development of scenario planning, explains the method step by step and places it in the wider context of strategic foresight. Case studies drawn from ETFI’s projects show how scenario planning works in practice, each with learning points and discussion questions.
The impact
The book was published by Channel View Publications on 10 December 2024 as part of The Future of Tourism series, marking ETFI’s tenth anniversary. It serves as a practical guide for practitioners, researchers and students, with cases ranging from the Friesland Futures Lab 2030 to scenarios for inbound tourism to the Netherlands.
The book has since been reviewed in the European Journal of Tourism Research and is used in education. More information: https://www.channelviewpublications.com/page/detail/Scenario-Planning-and-Tourism-Futures/?k=9781845418861
What could we discover together?
Whether you have a research question, a project idea or an interest in collaborating, we'd love to hear from you.
Contact our team!