Envisioning Tourism in 2030 and Beyond: The Changing Shape of Tourism in a Decarbonising World
What would tourism look like if it really met its climate targets? This study explored which pathways could halve tourism’s emissions and reach net zero by 2050, while preserving the social and economic benefits of travel.
Project duration: 2022 – 2023
The challenge
In the Glasgow Declaration, the tourism sector committed to halving its emissions within a decade and reaching net zero as soon as possible before 2050. Yet a clear picture of what that would mean for the sector was missing.
Current measures were far from enough, and a more ambitious, sector-wide approach was needed for tourism to contribute meaningfully to the Paris Agreement.
Our approach
The study combined qualitative and quantitative research. Decarbonisation pathways were modelled with the GTTMdyn system dynamics model developed by Professor Paul Peeters of Breda University of Applied Sciences, and refined through workshops, webinars and meetings with stakeholders. Bernadett Papp (ETFI) and Paul Peeters were the principal authors, with further analysis by Jasper Heslinga (ETFI) and partners.
The impact
The study found only one scenario that brings tourism to net zero by 2050, and even that scenario misses the 2030 target. It shows that travel can keep growing, but only if the system changes fundamentally: rapid decarbonisation, large investments and a shift towards shorter trips by lower-carbon transport.
Published by the Travel Foundation in 2023, the report received wide international media attention and is used by policymakers and industry. Read more: https://www.thetravelfoundation.org.uk/envision2030/
What could we discover together?
Whether you have a research question, a project idea or an interest in collaborating, we'd love to hear from you.
Contact our team!